Around one-third of global travel managers are now expecting their volume of business trips to fall “significantly” this year following the recent actions of the US government, according to a new GBTA (Global Business Travel Association) survey.
The poll of more than 900 travel buyers and suppliers around the world found that “a significant portion” were now anticipating declines in business travel this year with overall optimism “taking a hit”, as the Trump administration has implemented new policies on tariffs, cross-border rules and US entry restrictions for travellers from certain countries.
Some 29 per cent of buyer respondents expect a decline in business travel volumes at their organisation this year. While another 19 per cent of travel buyers are uncertain about the impact of US government actions on their travel activity. Only 9 per cent said volumes would increase this year while 44 per cent said they would not be affected.
This is also reflected by the finding that 27 per cent of buyers now predict a decrease in travel spending during 2025 compared with 11 per cent who are expecting to spend more and 44 per cent who said spending would be unchanged. The GBTA said this drop in spending could potentially reduce global business travel spending by $88 billion this year.
Only 44 per cent of buyer respondents said that their travel spending and volumes would not be impacted by changes in US policies.
The GBTA also noted a “significant decline” in confidence from global buyers about the overall industry outlook for this year: only 31 per cent of respondents said they remained optimistic for 2025 – down from 67 per cent who were optimistic about the outlook in November 2024’s poll.
A separate poll by BTN Europe found that only 7 per cent of respondents were currently planning to cut transatlantic travel due to US government policies, with another 31 per cent saying they could “possibly” reduce trips and were currently monitoring the situation.
Only 21 per cent said they did not expect their transatlantic travel plans to be affected, while 41 per cent said it was “too early to say”. This illustrates why many corporates are taking a “wait and see” approach to the overall impact of Trump’s ever-changing policies on transatlantic travel.
GBTA’s CEO Suzanne Neufang said: “While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry, considering recent actions taken by the US government.
“Travelling for work plays a vital role in supporting business growth, resilient economies, strong diplomatic ties and valuable connections.
“Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions. This undermines economic prosperity and damages the many sectors that rely on global business travel to survive and thrive.”
Neufang identified two “key factors” that could impact business travel in the longer term: “sustained economic pressure or uncertainty weighing on company budgets and if cross-border travel and global workforce mobility to and from the US are restricted”.
Further findings from the GBTA survey found that 7 per cent of organisations had revised their travel policies for trips to or from the US since January, with another 25 per cent planning or considering doing likewise in the coming months.
Up to 20 per cent of buyers have already or are considering cancelling, moving or not attending meetings and events in the US. While 10 per cent are planning or considering cancelling employees’ attendance at US-based events.
The top concerns for respondents about the longer-term impact of US government policies on business travel were: higher costs (54 per cent), additional travel processing and administration requirements (46 per cent) and potential budget cuts (40 per cent).
GBTA surveyed 905 travel buyers, suppliers and other industry professionals across the world.
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