Advisories issued for those travelling to the U.S., sparked by a series of arrests and detentions at, could take a serious toll on America’s tourism industry.
Jukka Laitamaki, professor of international hospitality and tourism at New York University, told Newsweek that should these spread to other countries, the economic impact could be “anywhere between 60 to 120 billion USD in 2025.”
Why It Matters
According to The World Travel and Tourism Council, the American tourism sector contributed $2.36 trillion to the country’s GDP in 2023 while accounting for a roughly 11 percent share of the total U.S. job market.
In addition to travel advisories triggered by reported difficulties being faced at the border, the critical sector is also facing the potential decline in visitors due to tariff-related hostility toward the U.S. This is particularly true of Canadians, who have been engaged in an boycott of U.S. goods and holiday destinations as a result of the the ongoing trade war and President Trump’s pledge to make the country a “51st state.”
What To Know
Professor Laitamaki said his estimate of a $120 billion hit to the tourism sector is based on a potential 10 percent decline in inbound travel and on the assumption that the travel advisories so far issued by countries including the U.K., Germany and Canada will be adopted by other nations in the E.U. and elsewhere.
Several countries have begun telling their citizens to exercise caution when making trips to the U.S. amid reports of intense questioning, detentions, and entry refusals.
Last week, the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office updated its travel advice to state that authorities in the U.S. “set and enforce entry rules strictly.”
“You may be liable to arrest or detention if you break the rules,” the guidance reads.
This came days after reports that a British backpacker had been detained in an Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing center for 19 days while attempting to enter the country from Canada.
Amid other reports of foreign nationals being held by U.S. immigration authorities, similar warnings have been issued by Canada, as well as France, Germany, Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands.
The latter three countries have included specific warnings for LGBTQ+ individuals, stressing that gender-related laws may differ from those in their home countries. They advise travelers to contact the U.S. embassy before their trips and inform transgender and nonbinary travelers about the sex categorizations outlined in recent executive actions.
Kevin Carter/Getty Images
As well as travel advisories, a recent report from Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, suggested that America’s escalating trade war with Canada, China, Mexico and the E.U. could also take a toll on the travel sector. Researchers anticipate tariffs to result in a 5.1 percent decline in inbound visits, contributing to an estimated $64 billion decline in travel spending in the U.S. in 2025.
“It’s worth noting that even before the recent travel warnings from Canada and several European countries, U.S. tourism growth was already being held back by long visa wait times,” said Eva Stewart, co-founder of Tourism Insights at GSIQ, a global research firm.
Stewart told Newsweek that, in the wake of the 2024 elections, GSIQ found declines of between 10 and 40 percent in the number of those considering visiting the U.S. from Canada and Mexico, “as well as from key European source markets like the U.K., Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Scandinavia.”
Stewart warned that the impacts of increased trepidation about travel to the U.S. will be highlighted during the number of major upcoming sporting events, such as the 2025 Ryder Cup to be held in New York and the 2026 FIFA World Cup, jointly hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
What People Are Saying
NYU Professor Jukka Laitamaki told Newsweek: “The Canadian, German and UK travel advisories will have a significant impact on the US tourism economy. Together with Mexico, these three countries counted for 56 percent of the 77.7 million international tourist arrivals in 2024.”
“Due to the ‘detained tourists’ effect the impact of these travel advisories will accelerate spread across the European Union and other countries,” he added.
Larry Yu, professor of hospitality management at the George Washington University School of Business told Condé NastTraveler: “The whole purpose is to stop illegal immigration. But then the executive orders are also tied to other issues like transgender identification, so it actually adds quite a bit of confusion, uncertainty, and concern for the US travel industry.”
David Beirman, senior lecturer at the University of Technology Sydney told The Washington Post: “As a general rule, government travel advisories are an influential element in the destination choice for international travel.”
Eva Stewart, Global Managing Partner at GSIQ, told Newsweek: “Data shows that global negative impressions of the U.S. as a travel destination have continued to rise since the start of this year. Our estimates suggesting this could wipe out up to 10% of potential global travel demand into America. This is undoing years of great work and hundreds of millions in marketing spend by cities, states, and Brand USA to promote U.S. destinations.”
“When high-spending travellers like Brits and Germans choose to holiday elsewhere, it’s not just a missed opportunity—it’s a major economic hit,” she added. “Destinations like New York, Florida, California, Washington, Texas, and Nevada (Las Vegas)—which are especially popular with visitors from Canada, the U.K. and Germany—will feel that loss acutely.”
What Happens Next?
More countries are expected to follow those that have already announced travel advisories in the coming days. Following reports last week, Belgium has now updated its guidance to state that: “Travellers to the US must identify their gender as either ‘male’ or ‘female’ when applying for an ESTA or visa,” Belga News reported Thursday.
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